NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – The U.S. stock bull market reached its fifth anniversary Monday after four consecutive years of gains. According to Truist analysis, the S&P 500 has climbed approximately 119% since its bear-market low at the close on Oct. 12, 2022. That session marked the index’s lowest finish since November 2020. By the close on Friday, the index was at 7,811.54, reflecting a 14.1% increase for 2026 and approaching record highs. The weekly rise was 1.2%.
This current rally stands as the 11th bull market since the 1950s in the historical series, with it being the seventh to last at least four years. The 119% gain, while significant, remains below the 184% average increase observed across the bull markets analyzed in the study. Past cycles have produced considerably larger cumulative gains; for example, the 2009-to-2020 bull market surged 401%, and the 1987-to-2000 cycle climbed 582%. These two periods are among the strongest in market history.
Historical data shows that many bull markets reaching this phase tend to perform well. Out of the previous 10 bull runs, six lasted longer than four years. When markets hit the fifth-year mark, the average return in that year was 12%, with a median gain of 15%. The study also found an average maximum drawdown of roughly 14% during fifth years. These figures depict past behavior and do not guarantee the current cycle’s future trajectory.
Earnings Growth Reinforces Current Market Momentum
Corporate earnings have gained strength during this phase of the rally. FactSet reports that S&P 500 earnings for the third quarter were tracking 29.6% higher than the same period last year as of Oct. 9. This would mark the third consecutive quarter with year-over-year earnings growth exceeding 25%. The growth rate was 29.2% when the quarter ended on Sept. 30. As of Oct. 9, 84% of the 19 index companies reporting had surpassed analyst earnings estimates, with total earnings exceeding estimates by 4.9%.
Expectations remain high for the remainder of the year. Analysts project fourth-quarter S&P 500 earnings to increase by 27.6% compared to a year earlier. Full-year 2026 earnings are forecasted to grow 32.4%. About 40% of the upward revisions to 2026 estimates are driven by semiconductor and hardware companies, which also account for roughly 75% of revisions to 2027 estimates so far this year, according to Barclays research. These figures highlight the ongoing importance of technology-related sectors in earnings revisions.
Market Conditions Persist with Elevated Rates
The stock rally continues despite higher U.S. interest rates and persistent government bond yields. The Federal Reserve increased its federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00% on Sept. 16. The Fed noted that economic activity remains solid and inflation continues to be elevated. Projections released in September indicated a median economic growth rate of 2.3% for 2026 and an unemployment rate of 4.1%. The Fed’s upcoming policy meeting is scheduled from Oct. 27 to Oct. 28.
Long-term Treasury yields are also near multi-year peaks as the bull market enters its fifth year. On Oct. 9, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was at 5.24%, while the 30-year yield stood at 5.60%. Despite this, the S&P 500 finished that day 0.6% higher at 7,811.54. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.6%. Stocks now enter their fifth year of recovery close to record levels, supported by robust earnings growth and borrowing costs above those typical in earlier bull markets.